It doesn’t end with the poll
THE likely winner of Tuesday’s Israeli election has been known for a long time, but that doesn’t mean it’s a poll to ignore.
ANALYSIS
THE likely winner of Tuesday’s Israeli election has been known for a long time, but that doesn’t mean it’s a poll to ignore.
There’s a world of difference between a narrow win and a more convincing win for the frontrunning Likud-Beitenu, in terms of the confidence with which it can approach the coming term in government and the kind of policies it will be able to pursue. The latest voter surveys are giving the coalition, which is led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, anywhere between 33 and 38 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
How can you follow all the election drama with an analyst’s eye? What are the key questions to be asking as you watch coverage of the election? What are the important themes to consider when you see the exit polls?
Watch the blocs.
Yes, the election is a battle of parties – more than 30 of them – but the real way to know if Israelis have changed their political orientation is to asses if they have switched blocs.
The parties divide quite neatly between right and left blocs, and the gains of parties whose fortunes are up are expected to come at the expense of parties in the same bloc. So, for example, Labour is expected to win lots of votes from the troubled Kadima party – both are in the left bloc. The buoyant Jewish Home is scratching away votes from Likud-Beitenu – both are in the right bloc. However, if there is movement between blocs, for example from Likud to Labour or from the centre-left to the right, this will indicate that the election has come to express a deeper ideological shift in Israel.
Watch second place
Some Israelis were starting to eulogise the Labour party after its poor performance in the last election in 2009, but buoyed by recent social protests it has emerged as a force to be reckoned with this time around. All through the campaign Labour has looked set to come second, but could Jewish Home steal its thunder? Some recent polls have Labour with only a one-seat lead over Jewish Home (16 versus 15 seats).
If they are accurate, and if Jewish Home has a successful final push, it could win silver. This would be a major boost, and a coalition bargaining chip, for the pro-settlement party.
Think coalitions
Presuming that Tuesday night will have celebrations at Likud-Beitenu headquarters, who will Netanyahu call to start coalition building? Likud-Beitenu is expected to be the most successful, but to attain the majority of 61 Knesset seats that it needs, it must get other parties on board.
Will Netanyahu choose his so-called natural allies, meaning parties from the right-wing bloc? This could be ideologically convenient, but may not be the best route to a unified country after a divisive election campaign, or pave the way to international acceptance.
His obvious choice will be to partner with the religious-Zionist Jewish Home party, and/or the Charedi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. But freezing out the Charedim could allow him to pass a universal draft and end the military exemption for yeshivah students.
He could well give all centrist factions first refusal, calling for some type of national unity alliance. This would mean Yesh Atid, the Tzipi Livni Party (Hatnuah), and possibly also Labour, even though it has declared an intention to stay out of the coalition.
For early indications on coalition deals, watch the various party leaders’ comments as results are announced.
The Netanyahu-Lieberman future
Likud leader Netanyahu and Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman have been quite evasive about what their decision to run in the elections together will mean after their likely victory.
Will the two parties become separate entities again, like any other parties serving in the same government, or are they set for a longer-term unity deal? Hints will be gleaned from what the two men will have to say on election night, and from their body language when they are together in the hours after the result.
NATHAN JEFFAY
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a press conference at the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem, announcing early elections. October 09, 2012. Photo by Miriam Alster/FLASH90
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