Bibi weighs his options
Will Benjamin Netanyahu choose knitted kippot or black kippot for his government? This choice, between religious-Zionists or Charedim for his government, is the big decision that could dramatically impact on the agenda of the next Knesset.
Coalition negotiations began in earnest this week following Israel’s general election, and Prime Minister Netanyahu, who will head the next government, already has the loyalty of election runner-up Yair Lapid, head of the Yesh Atid party.
Lapid said that he wanted to take “off the table” suggestions that the political centre and left wing could unite to stop Netanyahu forming a government. Avigdor Liberman, second on Netanyahu’s election roster, has commented that there is “no doubt” that Lapid will be a “senior member of the government.”
But Netanyahu and Liberman’s list plus Lapid’s amounts to just 50 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, and the minimum target for a majority is 61 seats. Sources say that Netanyahu is actually hoping for far more to ensure stable government.
Netanyahu is expected to start shoring up his numbers by bringing Kadima, with its two seats, in to the government. There is speculation that this tiny party may return to Likud and become part of the party that it broke away from in 2005. It is also possible that it may join Yesh Atid or stay independent — but via any route it could enter government.
His old foe Tzipi Livni controls six centrist seats. She realises that this is her return from political obscurity and if she disappears in opposition her political career is likely to be over. In view of this, despite Livni’s dislike for Netanyahu the Tzipi Livni Party (TLP) looks poised to join the coalition.
With Yesh Atid, Kadima and TLP, Netanyahu would have 58 seats, meaning that he would just need one more faction.
Despite internal arguments in Labour on the subject in recent days, it is sticking by its pre-election promise to stay out of a Netanyahu-led government, and the further-left Meretz party is flatly opposed to joining, as are the Arab parties.
This leaves the Orthodox parties. There is the Charedi-run United Torah Judaism, but Netanyahu is interested in numbers and so is likely to choose between the Orthodox parties with double figures.
The larger Charedi party, Shas, has 11 seats and the religious-Zionist Jewish Home has 12. But both have an agenda that could seriously restrain Netanyahu.
Jewish Home leaves virtually no room for manoeuvre on a negotiated peace with the Palestinians — it is flatly opposed to the two-state solution. Shas is virulently opposed to drafting Charedim to national service, which is one of Lapid’s key priorities and a development that Netanyahu would like to see. However, following the return of former party chairman Arye Deri, who has dovish tendencies, to the party leadership, the party would almost certainly be open to talking with the Palestinians about a peace deal and could conceivably approve one if reached.
All sorts of arrangements are possible to square the circles created by the party’s ideologies, such as a government with Shas where a compromise is hammered out on Haredi service or where the party votes freely on this issue and legislation relies on support from outside the government. But judging by the styles of Jewish Home, Shas and Netanyahu, they are unlikely. A softening by Shas on the draft is conceivable, but it’s a long shot.
If Netanyahu wants a coalition that is more-or-less unified around his main direction then it seems he must choose, not just between parties but also between agendas for the next Knesset — diplomacy or draft?
As he decides, Netanyahu has another headache. Feminist activists and women’s groups claimed angrily this week that Netanyahu’s former Chief of Staff, Natan Eshel, was to head coalition negotiations, even though he resigned in February amid accusations of harassing a female staffer and signed a plea bargain admitting misconduct. Eshel denied that he was to be involved in the talks, but an email then emerged in which Eshel seems to state that he had been asked to head them.
Lapid declared that he will refuse to negotiate with Eshel and thousands of people joined a Facebook group called “If Natan Eshel is in the Prime Minister’s Office, women will reject the government.” As of press time, Eshel is thought to be off the negotiating team.
The saga left Netanyahu, whose wings were clipped in the election due to a major reduction in the strength of his party, with unwelcome embarrassment.
Netanyahu suffered another setback this week. The highly popular governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer, who is widely credited for smoothly steering Israel through hard economic times, announced that he is resigning, potentially harming the public’s optimism regarding the country’s fiscal situation.
NATHAN JEFFAY
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